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The United States has been losing its status as the world’s sole superpower since the end of the Cold War, while China has gradually increased its relative power. This re-balancing is beginning to have a profound impact on the international system and the way it is governed.
After a year that included the Arab Awakening, the euro crisis, Japan’s nuclear catastrophe, the killing of Osama bin Laden, and the unanticipated reaction to Russia’s recent parliamentary elections, there are many unanswered questions left for 2012.
The death of North Korean dictator Kim Jung Il increases the likelihood that the stress on the multiple fault lines in Korean society will reach the point of breaking. Secret talks with China to plan for contingencies may be needed now more than ever.
China’s traditional diplomacy is at a crossroads as it adjusts to the new global order. The financial crises, climate change, and regional instability have propelled China into a new global role and in turn, a new era of diplomacy.
Recently, China announced that it is considering an offer by the Seychelles to use its ports for resupplying naval vessels. Meanwhile, India is believed to be planning a cooperative effort with Vietnam on oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea.
The Obama administration requested a ten percent increase in 2012 for funding for weapons activities under the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). This increase has raised questions in China about U.S. commitment to disarmament and strategic stability.
The execution of America’s strategic 'pivot' to Asia, and China's response, are combining to deepen mutual suspicions and potentially destabilize the entire area.
Europeans should recognize that Washington’s increased engagement in the Asia-Pacific is also in Europe’s best interests and work to develop its own strategic approach toward the region.
With China’s growing influence over the global economy, and its increasing ability to project military power, competition between the United States and China may be inevitable but military clashes remain unlikely.
The Russian Empire is gone and it is never coming back. Russia must now take steps as a post-imperial nation to quickly modernize lest it becomes marginalized in the evolving global order.