China’s economy can only continue to grow rapidly through ever riskier increases in debt. Eventually, Chinese authorities will either choose to slow growth and curtail investment sharply or they will be forced to do so by their excessive debt.
Rising wages and capital costs are squeezing China's small- and medium-sized enterprises, while administrative attempts to mandate lending through quotas are distorting credit markets.
Despite China's low consumption and high investment relative to GDP, key indicators suggest that its growth is not actually unbalanced.
With the bureaucratic infrastructure for solid bilateral relations between China and Russia already in place, the next step is increased dialogue between the countries’ intellectuals, who can examine the relationship from a broader perspective.
Although Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa enjoy significantly more power individually nowadays, as a group they still haven't mastered the methods for transforming their newfound economic prowess into global power.
In spite of nominal changes in the value of China’s currency and domestic interest rates and wages, China’s economy remains unbalanced, as real interest rates continue to outpace real wages and any real appreciation of the renminbi.
In order to reduce rural-urban inequality and prevent widespread unrest, China needs to invest its citizens with greater mobility and property rights by reforming its system for household registration.
If China is to avoid accumulating unsustainable levels of debt, it must reform its banking system by lowering interest rates, improving corporate governance, ensuring a more predictable regulatory framework, and providing higher quality information to investors.
If the Chinese and U.S. militaries cannot commit to a cooperative relationship, progress between the two nations on strategic issues will be limited, hostility could grow, and both sides could become more resolute about defending their respective military objectives.
China’s domestic development drive has prompted it to develop trade relations with Latin America. While generating positive economic results for both sides in the short-term, the threat of Latin America once again falling into a pattern of export dependency—this time with China—looms large.
Beijing's usage of the term "core interests" to describe its critical national priorities indicates that while China has become increasingly assertive on the global stage, the nature and direction of this assertiveness is still being worked out by Chinese leaders.