In this podcast, hosted by Carnegie–Tsinghua’s Paul Haenle, Dan Markey of the Council of Foreign Relations examined the external and internal drivers shaping the trajectory of China’s close strategic partner, Pakistan. Markey explained that a Pakistan that is ungovernable or unstable poses a significant challenge for Chinese and U.S. efforts to deal with transnational issues like terrorism, India-Pakistan relations, and nuclear proliferation.

He said Pakistan has the potential to serve as transit hub from energy-rich Central Asian states to China, and even India, but only if its leaders can overcome deep-rooted political barriers. The success of China’s large investments to revive the Silk Road corridor through Central Asia and increase economic integration between China and countries to its west will depend on Pakistan’s ability to maintain its own stability and security. Markey added that Islamabad would be naïve to think China will save Pakistan from its own economic failings—it will be up to Pakistanis to make Chinese investments sustainable and valuable over the long-term.

Haenle and Markey concluded by considering opportunities for U.S.-China cooperation in South Asia, given their mutual interests. Markey commented that during recent visits to Afghanistan, he has seen significant interest in greater Chinese presence and involvement in infrastructure construction and development. Markey noted that historically, the greatest progress in improving India-Pakistan relations has been achieved when the United States and China have coordinated their policies toward India and Pakistan respectively. Thus, Pakistan remains an important issue on the U.S.-China agenda and a fruitful area for greater cooperation in the future.

Daniel S. Markey

Dan Markey is a senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he specializes in security and governance issues in South Asia. Markey is the author of numerous publications, including most recently a book on the future of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship, No Exit from Pakistan: America's Tortured Relationship with Islamabad.

Paul Haenle

Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.