
The result of the upcoming U.S. presidential election will directly impact how the United States, China, and Russia approach issues on the Korean Peninsula. How would a second Trump or first Biden administration deal with North Korea?

Asia’s two largest nuclear powers have never threatened each other with nuclear weapons. How much will the recent deadly border clashes between China and India change the security landscape?

There are three guiding principles that can help make future arms control dialogues more successful.

The United States and China must cooperate on arms control. But to do so, the two countries need an innovative approach.

Conventional long-range strike weapons of US allies may exacerbate Chinese concerns about the survivability of its small nuclear arsenal against a precision pre-emptive strike from the US-led coalition, although the degree of the new threat depends on various factors including the numbers and types of such weapons to be deployed.

Effective nuclear arms control engagement with China will likely require confidence-building measures by the United States and greater support from the international community.

China’s emerging sea-based nuclear capability is going to be increasingly important for the country’s overall nuclear deterrent. But with this growing capability, China also faces a wide range of new challenges. The perception of an increasing threat from conventional weapons to China’s nuclear deterrent is forcing it to face a new reality in which the interaction between conventional and nuclear weapons becomes more complicated.

While both countries may think the situation is under control, dismissive attitudes and misperceptions could end up fueling a dangerous competition.

Supporters of nuclear expansion believe that a larger Chinese nuclear arsenal is the key to prevent a war with Washington and “nothing else could work.” The overt nature of the debate is unprecedented and shifts public opinion toward greater enthusiasm for a more robust nuclear posture.

To better understand the prospects for U.S.-China arms control, The Diplomat’s senior editor, Ankit Panda, spoke to Tong Zhao, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, based at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing.