Traditionally, China and Pakistan have cooperated closely at the strategic and political levels. Now the two nations are making efforts to expand their bilateral collaboration economically as well. The construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a milestone that signifies this shift.
At its core, the CPEC is a large-scale initiative to build energy, highway, and port infrastructure to deepen economic connections between China and Pakistan. This initiative has been well-received in both countries, although it is not without its problems.1 Nevertheless, China and Pakistan regard the CPEC as a new source of potential synergy between their respective national development strategies, which may help the two countries translate their close political cooperation into multifaceted economic cooperation, attain mutual benefits, and achieve win-win outcomes. For the economic corridor to reach its potential, however, there are security and political challenges in Pakistan that must be addressed.
China first proposed the corridor project in May 2013. Chinese President Xi Jinping then visited Pakistan in April 2015, and both sides agreed to elevate their relationship to an “all-weather strategic partnership.”2 During Xi’s visit, the two countries signed fifty-one agreements at an estimated value of $46 billion.3
The CPEC is now moving into the implementation phase. On May 6, 2016, there was an opening ceremony held in the city of Sukkur in Pakistan’s Sindh Province, as construction began on a section of highway between Sukkur and the city of Multan—it will be part of a network of highways that will connect the cities of Peshawar and Karachi.4 This network is a major component of the CPEC’s plans for infrastructure expansion, which highlights the progress the two nations have achieved thus far in the area of transportation. In addition, on November 13, 2016, the first large shipment of Chinese goods went through the port of Gwadar, a flagship CPEC project in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan.5
China considers these development initiatives a potential source of stability and prosperity for both countries. From a Chinese perspective, cooperation in the areas of security and economics are closely intertwined, and improvements on one side can improve the other. It is almost as though security and economics are two separate wheels on the same vehicle, and both need to be spinning to move things forward. China believes economic development can strengthen Pakistan’s internal stability, thus reinvigorating the latter’s economy through investment in infrastructure projects as well as the construction of oil and gas pipelines. China hopes this will create a certain level of stability within Pakistan and in turn stabilize China’s western periphery, particularly the province of Xinjiang.
More broadly, the CPEC has to be understood in the context of China’s strategic interests in East Asia and the way the United States has challenged them. Faced with such difficulties, China hopes it can expand its strategic space by heading west. Pakistan serves as a crucial bridge between China and Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. Security and stability in Pakistan will make it possible for China to exercise greater influence in these regions and to ensure security at home. This is why China is willing to pour vast amounts of resources into the economic corridor—based on the logic of improving security through economic development.
Likewise, Pakistan has realized that no other country places such high strategic importance in its economic relationship with Pakistan as China does. Pakistan also greatly values the economic corridor and views it as mutually beneficial in terms of politics and economic development. According to Pakistan 2025—a blueprint for economic development published in 2014 by Pakistan’s Ministry of Planning, Development, and Reform—Pakistan aims to advance from being a lower-middle-income nation to an upper-middle-income nation by 2025.6 To achieve this goal, Pakistan hopes to attract increasing amounts of foreign investment. The country is working to improve its overall economy by constructing energy projects and other forms of infrastructure, to create employment opportunities for its populace, and to improve its governance.
The logic behind this strategy is that fundamentally improving Pakistan’s economy will help alleviate the challenges posed by political extremists, radicals, and jihadists. China and Pakistan share the belief that economic development can help stabilize Pakistan and improve its domestic security situation. However, China also recognizes that the security, political, and cultural risks and uncertainties facing the economic corridor cannot be overlooked.
The first of these risks is terrorism, which has long affected Pakistan’s internal security and stability. Although Pakistan has worked hard to strike at religious extremism and terrorist activities, its problems with terrorism have not substantially improved in recent years. Because the CPEC is so important to the Pakistani government, these projects’ construction sites and engineering personnel may become targets for religious as well as nationalist extremists. Indeed, there already have been numerous occasions when Chinese engineers working in Pakistan have been attacked or even lost their lives. In May 2016, for instance, engineers in Karachi were attacked by Sindh separatists.7 Fortunately, no Chinese personnel were wounded or killed. Then in September, Baloch rebels killed at least two Chinese engineers and injured many others.8 Moreover, several large-scale terrorist attacks in Balochistan have killed dozens of people, which shows that the security situation in this province where China has key projects is far from ideal.9
The security threat posed by terrorism remains ongoing, despite the economic benefits that the CPEC can offer Pakistan. The corridor aims to enhance the well-being of people throughout the country and bring long-term prosperity and stability. The Pakistani authorities, meanwhile, have promised China they will do everything possible to ensure the safety of Chinese workers.10 This is a feasible commitment in the short term. However, over time, it will become more difficult for Pakistan to guarantee the security of the CPEC’s growing transportation networks, which will require increasing investments of security personnel and material support. It will likely become uncertain in the future whether Pakistan can maintain a strong enough military presence to ensure the security of all these transportation routes.
Second, Pakistan’s domestic politics is also important to the CPEC’s success. The country’s political system has never been particularly stable. Political power oscillates between military and civilian leaders. General Pervez Musharraf’s resignation as president in 2008 ended the latest period of military rule, and from that point onward, the military has been pushed from center stage. In the 2013 election, the Pakistan People’s Party lost power after the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz defeated it. The successful completion of this election, as well as the smooth transition of power that ensued, was the first time in Pakistan’s history that a civilian government was able to serve out its entire term. This was a sign of improvement for Pakistan’s democracy.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s traditional political culture, which is almost feudal in nature, also continues to play an important role. Powerful families based in different provinces, such as the Bhuttos and the Sharifs, have typically held political power. Behind the party politics are local interests groups associated with these families.
Various parties within Pakistan have disagreed a lot about how CPEC transportation routes should be mapped out. The competing parties are primarily interested in how the cake should be divided, so to speak. To strengthen its respective standing among the electorate, each of Pakistan’s political parties hopes the CPEC will pass through the region it represents, allowing its local community to enjoy the corridor’s benefits. In fact, since the initiative was first presented in 2013, the debate over which route the CPEC would follow has caused substantial delays. The construction of the corridor has just begun. It is expected that competition among Pakistan’s domestic political groups will continue to affect its future implementation.
Yet the CPEC will not only serve as a roadway that simply connects point A to point B—the initiative is designed to do more. The corridor also aims to facilitate multisectoral economic cooperation in finance, trade, energy, and industry.
Amid a market slowdown and high unemployment rates, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif came back into office in 2013 with the intent of reinvigorating the economy, and he undertook a series of measures to improve Pakistan’s economic prospects.11 One was lowering barriers to foreign investment.12 As for addressing energy shortages, Pakistan has been making efforts to restructure its energy industry and increase its electricity production. At the same time, the government has worked hard to strengthen investment in infrastructure, has moved forward with tax reforms, and has focused on increasing revenue and reducing expenditures. In addition, the government has adopted other measures to develop its market economy. It has overseen reforms for state-run enterprises and encouraged market privatization.
These measures are already starting to take effect. The country’s GDP is growing at a stronger rate, and the economy is improving.13 For the time being, however, it will still remain unclear whether these economic advances can actually alleviate Pakistan’s serious security and stability problems.
Cultural considerations and public relations should be also taken into account when evaluating the CPEC’s prospects for economic success. Ordinary citizens in China and Pakistan are not very familiar with each other. The countries’ leaders have built an all-weather friendship and close political relationship over the years, but this is not yet true of the two societies at large.
As China and Pakistan gradually expand cooperation, there will be an increasing number of Chinese corporations investing in Pakistan. Different cultural practices and ways of thinking could cause misunderstandings, and this could negatively affect CPEC projects. For these corporations to be successful, they will need to understand local cultures, norms, and rules. Having information about and services for doing business in Pakistan is also crucial for Chinese corporations.
China should abandon its traditional way of dealing only with the Pakistani government and instead get in contact with local communities to better accommodate local interests so that more Pakistani people can benefit from the CPEC. China and Pakistan need to strengthen their cultural ties and increase people-to-people interactions. This has already begun, due to the increasing economic activity between the two countries, forcing China to become more informed about the complexities of Pakistani society. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Council was founded in 2015 to jointly address the challenges arising in the CPEC projects.14 The council has opened offices in Beijing and Islamabad respectively, and its purpose is to assist with the implementation of CPEC projects.15
China and Pakistan have taken positive measures to help set up the CPEC for success. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s domestic situation is still decisive. Until the country’s political and security conditions turn a corner, it will be difficult to judge the corridor's future prospects. For China, this means neutrality, strategic patience, and caution are needed as the construction of this grand initiative continues.
Lu Yang is a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University, working on South Asian politics and China’s diplomatic relations with South Asian countries.
Notes
1 S. Akbar Zaidi, “The New Game Changer in Pakistan,” the Hindu, last updated September 20, 2016, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/chinapakistan-economic-corridor-the-new-game-changer-in-pakistan/article8656498.ece.
2 An Lu, “China, Pakistan Lift Ties to All-Weather Strategic Partnership of Cooperation,” Xinhua News Agency, April 20, 2015, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-04/20/c_134167316.htm.
3 “China’s Xi Jinping agrees $46 bn superhighway to Pakistan,” BBC, April 20, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-32377088.
4 “PM Performs Groundbreaking of Sukkur-Multan Motorway,” the Express Tribune, May 6, 2016, http://tribune.com.pk/story/1098275/pm-performs-groundbreaking-of-sukkur-multan-motorway/.
5 Kay Johnson, “Pakistani PM Welcomes First Large Chinese Shipment to Gwadar Port,” Reuters, November 13, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-china-port-idUSKBN1380LU.
6 Government of Pakistan; Ministry of Planning, Development, and Reform; Planning Commission, Pakistan 2025: One Nation – One Vision, http://pc.gov.pk/vision2025/Pakistan%20Vision-2025.pdf.
7 Imtiaz Ali, “Chinese Citizen Targeted in Karachi Blast,” Dawn, May 30, 2016, http://www.dawn.com/news/1261600.
8 Mayank Pratap Singh, “Baloch Rebels Attack Dudher Project Site, 2 Chinese Engineers Killed, Many Hurt,” India Today, September 28, 2016, http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/baloch-rebels-attack-kills-two-engineers/1/775273.html.
9 “Pakistan Hospital Bomb Attack Kills Dozens in Quetta,” BBC, August 8, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37007661; “Pakistan Shah Noorani Shrine Bomb Kills 52,” BBC, November 12, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/37962741; “Quetta Terror Attack: At Least 44 Killed in Pakistan Police Academy Attack,” Times of India, October 25, 2016, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Quetta-terror-atatck-At-least-20-killed-in-Pakistan-police-academy-attack/articleshow/55041063.cms.
10 Shannon Tiezzi, Pakistan Will Provide ‘Special Force’ to Defend Chinese Investments,” the Diplomat, February 5, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/pakistan-will-provide-special-force-to-defend-chinese-investments/.
11 Farhan Bokhari and Victor Mallet, “Nawaz Sharif Takes Steps to Revive Pakistan’s Economy,” Financial Times, May 13, 2013, https://www.ft.com/content/374bc1a6-bbe8-11e2-a4b4-00144feab7de.
12 Government of Pakistan, Prime Minister’s Secretariat, Board of Investment, Investment Policy 2013, http://boi.gov.pk/UploadedDocs/Downloads/InvestmentGuide.pdf.
13 World Bank, “GDP Growth [Pakistan],” World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=PK.
14 “Pak-China Economic Corridor Council Launched in Islamabad,” China Daily, April 09, 2015, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2015xivisitpse/2015-04/09/content_20038726.htm.
15 “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Council: Council Profile,” China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Council, http://c-pecc.com/en/about/about-47.html.
Comments(19)
I have read your research Mr Lu Yang. I have recently completed my MPhil degree from Hazara University in Pakistan. Your highlights are valuable. Sir I am serving Army officer in Pakistan Army. My research was focusing to prove that we are moving towards greater economic integration. I am interested in PhD studies to work on possibility to develop a common language among China, Pakistan and Central Asian Republics. Because I found and maintaining a list of words common in Pakistan and Central Asia. This project will develop the possibility to remove barriers among the businessmen of all China, Pakistan and Central Asia. With Regards Mohammad Ijaz Awan Pakistan
Great ... Pl send me a copy of your work 😊
Great ... Pl send me a copy of your work 😊
But, it is must to keep in mind that everything in CPEC projects are used Chinese manufactured even also employees are hired from China. All companies such as consultant, audit, accounts, third party monitoring are also chines or subsidiary of China. Pakistan is incurring a huge amount for assure the security of chines people who are working in these projects. It can be treat a cost of these project beared by Pakistan directly. But, it can't mentioned in CPEC balance sheet. Its no doubt CPEC is main line project and not easy to quite its merits.
Good article, highlighting lacking people to people contact and cultural acquaintance between two nations, in addition to Gulf, Central Asian states, China will also have easy access to African countries.
It is golden chance for Pakistan for all Pakistani specially we are so thankful of our respected dear Mr PM Nawaz Sharif .
It is golden chance for Pakistan for all Pakistani specially we are so thankful of our respected dear Mr PM Nawaz Sharif .
I have read respected sir Lu Yang your research is very well about CPEC according with our economics value will grow and also will benefits of both countries relations will be strong both countries will face of any difficult time together and also both countries can supply their raw material in world level to take the benefits from other countries by their own trade and specially it is oppartunateis for Pakistani people . Ajmal Das Dpt Political Science Final Year University of Sindh Pakistan.
CPEC, surely is a game changer and will definitely benefit China more than it would benefit Pakistan. Pakistan will become economically strong and stable but will be, in a way, colonised by China. For instance, Chinese Culture will be introduced in Pakistan, mainly in regions where CPEC route has been paved. Chinese hotels, guest houses, culture and above all the Chinese will get a way "in-to" Pakistan. It's good that Pakistan will benefit from this mega project but on the other side, Pakistan will be colonised by the next Super Power China. Pak-China Friendship 👌We should pray that it should remain as friendship only, nothing more than that....
CPEC.. I really agrred with the writer.. This project has many benefit for pakistani nation... Now pakistani nation is more eager to learn about china and its language.. CPEC is a gateway of new sources to get progress for Pakistan ..
All i read is really like one day PAKISTAN will be a rich country. Lets see when and hope soon InshALLAH the issues of cost of living in pakistan will be resovled
no doubt C-PEC is really a game changer for Pakistan even for ASIA, but there are many things that de-value Pakistan's goodwill . i am a research student from sialkot, n continuing my research on the de-merits of C-PEC in Pakistan as well .. i wan the opinion of different research student's on it ... mahamtayab@gmail.com
Mam, according to yor research work, would you like to mention demerits ov CPEC ?
Pakistan is becoming an indebted nation. One of the causes of the demise of the Turkish Empire was debt-overburden. Egypt suffered overburden and Britain took over the Suez Canal. What assurance is there that China will not take over Gwadar. The project initiated under the Chinese Plan provides material and labour - no learning for Pakistan? No opportunities for Pakistanis? Is Pakistan after escaping from English colonialism, and Indian depredation, stepping into Chinese hegemony?
No doubt CPEC is a game changer for Pakistan. Respected sir i have read your views about the Pak- China friendship but dont you think so that in future Pakistan will economically strengthen on one side but at the mean time will become a subservient of China's ambition.
i strongly agree with u
Mr Lu Yang, you have attempted to highlight the issues on the basis of secondary research, i.e. quoted the media reported on various issues. Have you checked how much these media reports are biased or not? being a media professional and a research student, I believe there are many flaws in these reports which are you quoted in your article. You need to do some independent research on the issue in order to highlight the actual situation. You must contact directly to the people who matters and get first hand information from them to complete your research. Indepth interviews with them will be a good way to conduct this research besides getting authentic data from them. I believe you will consider this suggestions for better Sino-Pak relations and boosting the ties between the two countries.
The Solution - Exports - Part 1 The export strategy of Pakistan,should be based on export of water,labour,earth, defense and LDC benefits.Any other model will fail,as competitive nations,with deep pockets,will offer financial,fiscal and asset subsidies,to offset any advantage,that Pakistan,has w.r.t labour cost and geography (besides excellent logistics,and regulatory structures) dindooohindoo Setting up manufacturing capacities,to cater to the local Pakistani market and exporting the surplus,is not viable,as Pakistan does not have economies of scale (even to realise the geometric impact,of lower labour costs).Planning capacities on that model,leads to the DISASTER of the Indian NPAs,of 350-400 Billion USD,with exports dead,and the inability of Indians,to compete,with the PRC. Export of Water - is export of animal proteins,exotic fruits and vegetables and agri to the GCC,EU and other parts of the world.Water from the skies or the earth,by rarefaction or condensation or precipitation,in the form of hail,rain or snow,is purely a function of geography,in a time span of a few decades.Over a period of 3-4000 years,some disasters can occur,like the disappearance of Saraswati (in Pakistan) or the diversion of rivers etc. Thus,water captures the fertility and agro-ecoonomic opportunities and variety of Pakistani soil,and also,the geo-strategic location of Pakistan (w.r.t access to GCC,Ports,Cheapest Point of Purchase for UN/FAO/WHO procurements for Afghanistan etc.) In Pakistan,Water is a Perpetual Resource,UNLIKE in India.In addition,many nations in the EU allow a COO certificate linked to a Geography,in that exporting nation, to give ADDITIONAL DUTY/SUBSIDY AND QUOTA BENEFITS. These are agriculture and agri-derivatives,like wine.Pakistan is the prime candidate, for the same,for exotic fruits etc., which have valuable and critical,downstream applications,in the EU. Export of Defense - In conjunction with the PRC and the PLA/PLN.PLAF,Pakistan can perfect the technique of customising and innovating Chinese Defense Technology,for their use,and exporting lower technologies or the excess capacities to Africa,Central Asia,LATAM,South America and the Middle East (excluding the quasi Nato nations).With Chines=se Financial Aid, extensive credits can be given.There are many nations in the world,which the PRC would NOT like to make defense exports to.
Solution to Pakistan Exports - Part 2 Export of Earth - is export of minerals,which ALSO,includes industries like Cement (which is export of lime,limestone and coal).Once the Coal Fields of Pakistan,are tapped,then it would include sale of power,as the cheapest way to transport power,is at the speed of light,via a grid - especially,when the Grid is set up by other nations. Pakistani Mineral Resources are almost perpetual,and in areas with very low density of population and ample water.Thus the scope for TOLERATING pollution is higher - and if some latitude is granted w.r.t pollution,wastes, effluents, safety and environment - mining costs can crash exponentially.For a Perpetual reserve,with an exchange rate of Rs 160/USD,it is akin to burying US Dollars, 1000 meters in the earth.For a nation,with finite reserves (in the short term),there is an opportunity cost,of exports - in terms of the fact that,in 2023 (say),prices of several ores might be 2-5 times,current rates - LDC - Lastly,Pakistan has to maximise the LDC benefits,using Chinese Capital and SEZs - with an appropriate mix of Chinese Labour and Domestic Input Costs,in the SEZ units, so that the COO is Pakistan,and the LDC benefits are availed of. SEZs - The SEZ policy of Pakistan has to be synthesised with the LDC gains,to ensure that the costs to the SEZ,are the lowest among all LDCs in the world.However,the Costs are not to be evaluated,as the Nominal Costs.So the land lease and other charges,payable by the SEZ to the Pakistani State, might not be the lowest - but on a NET differential Mode,w.r.t the Reduction in Logistics costs,to the Pakistani SEZ,it should be the LOWEST in the world. Once that is done,then as a thumb rule, to keep the laws simple, FREE EXIM needs to allowed and all Inputs (including Power etc.) should be sourcable,w/o caveats.So a SEZ should be able to set up a IPP/CPP/RPP, anywhere in Pakistan,with any fuel,with nil duty and taxes and the lowest wheeling and banking charges. Tax holidays should start AT THE CHOICE of the Investor,FROM THE FY after which the Brought forward losses,are exhausted. Basically,even if Pakistan waives the Wheeling charges etc.,it does not matter,as the aim is to bring in the ANCHOR and other Investors in the SEZ.Thereafter,the principles of Self Preservation by the SEZs,and its units,will ensure that,the State will find ingenious ways to earn revenue - provided that,1st the ANCHOR comes in,and then, that the SEZ and the SEZ units,make money !
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