In September 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping conducted his first tour of Central Asia, visiting Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. During his trip, Xi signed agreements to enhance China’s energy security, deepen cooperation with Central Asian governments on border security, and unveiled his “new Silk Road” policy of free trade and exchange. 

With the United States scheduled to withdraw its military forces from Afghanistan by December 2014, numerous questions have arisen over Central Asia’s regional security and economic development, and the impact on China-Russia relations. To address these questions and challenges, Carnegie-Tsinghua hosted a panel moderated by Zhang Yuan’An of Caixin and featuring Hu Hao of the China Center for Contemporary World Studies, independent scholar Bobo Lo, Filip Noubel of Internews, and Zhao Huasheng of Fudan University.

Major Interests in Region

Panelists explained why both China and Russia have a vested interest in improving their ties with Central Asia.

  • Regional Security: One panelist explained that Moscow is most concerned with the spread of radical Islam to Russia. Another panelist noted that China is also concerned about instability in Central Asia and the potential impact on stability in Western China. This is a significant factor in why China pursues economic cooperation with Central Asia. 
     
  • Economics and Energy: A panelist explained that China’s interest in the region is primarily driven by economics and energy needs. Another added that while this was the case in the past, Moscow is now worried that China’s growing economic influence may soon translate into political and strategic competition with Russia in Central Asia. 
     
  • Russia’s Counterbalancing: Russia’s proposed Eurasian Union with Central Asia is an effort to reestablish Russia as a global power in a multipolar world, remarked one panelist. He added that the growing influence of the EU and China in the region has pushed Russia to try and counterbalance by forming its own integration project. Another panelist noted that a Eurasian Union is a potential strategic concern for China because it demonstrates that Central Asian countries may ally with Russia on long-standing Russian-Chinese border disputes.

Central Asia Poses Significant Risks

Despite significant opportunities for Russia and China in Central Asia, the regional also poses several potential challenges to the security and diplomatic objectives of both countries. 

  • China’s Image and Newcomer Status:  One panelist explained that anti-Chinese propaganda in former Soviet republics after the Sino-Soviet split created a negative image of China in Central Asia. He added that China cannot compete with Russia’s cultural influence in the region. Another panelist disagreed, noting that China’s newcomer status offers it a clean slate and an advantage over Russia’s tainted Cold War legacy among Central Asian countries.​​​
     
  • Governance and Stability: Panelists agreed that the collapse of any Central Asian country would be a grave security threat not only to its immediate neighbors but also China and Russia. One added that some of these countries, in particular Tajikistan, are poorly governed and have the potential to become major regional crises.
     
  • U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan: One panelist noted that the Central Asian countries, as former Soviet republics, are hesitant to involve themselves in Afghanistan due to the historical association to the Soviet invasion. On the other hand, with the U.S. withdrawal imminent, another panelist reiterated that Russia remains worried that instability in Afghanistan could spill over to Central Asia and Russia.

Future of Central Asia

As China’s relations with Central Asia deepen and the region grows in economic and geopolitical importance, numerous questions remain about Central Asia’s role in regional and global affairs.

  •  Next Generation of Leadership: One panelist noted that the next generation of Central Asian leaders have studied abroad in China and the West, and thus may bring a more open-minded, international approach to its leadership style. Another panelist countered that the introduction of leaders with international educations is unlikely to have an impact on governance styles. 
     
  • Future of Afghanistan: China has formed a strategic partnership with Afghanistan, stated one panelist, by increasing aid and giving public support to the current government. However, the panelist added that Afghanistan’s problems could only be solved through domestic dialogue, not foreign involvement. Another argued that if China continues to develop its economic presence in Afghanistan, it will inevitably become a greater political and security actor with its own interests to protect.
     
  • Mutual Benefit: One panelist explained that Russia was concerned that the increased Chinese economic influence in Central Asia will lead to strategic cooperation that excludes Moscow. Despite this, he added that Russia hopes to benefit from Central Asia’s economic development through China’s investment in the region.