Podcasts

  • North Korea and The South China Sea: What’s Next?
    Gary Roughead, Paul Haenle September 27, 2016

    Given the increasingly complex security environment in the Asia-Pacific, it is critical for the United States and China to deepen cooperation on promoting regional stability. In this podcast, Paul Haenle and Admiral Gary Roughead, former chief of naval operations and one of only two admirals to have commanded both the Pacific and Atlantic fleets, examined U.S.-China military relations, potential U.S. policy responses to the tribunal ruling in the South China Sea, and North Korea's latest nuclear and ballistic missile tests.

    Roughead argued that while conflict in the South China Sea is not imminent, the region lacks the necessary mechanisms for deescalating accidental clashes, the risk of which have risen with recent increased activity. He also commented on North Korea's continued nuclear weapons testing, noting that the country's recent submarine-based ballistic missile test is an especially problematic and serious development. Roughead said these tests indicate that the potential of North Korea to threaten the region and the United States has moved into a new domain. He recommended enhanced regional intelligence sharing and overall maritime awareness to address North Korea's advancing nuclear capabilities. Finally, Roughead discussed the unique relationship between China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, arguing that nations do not want to choose sides between the United States and China but rather seek favorable relations with both powers.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    Gary Roughead

    Gary Roughead is the former chief of naval operations in the U.S. Navy. He retired in 2011 after 38 years of service and is one of only two admirals to have commanded both the Pacific and Atlantic fleets.

    As the United States shapes its Asia policies, it should strive to deepen cooperation with China to promote stability in the region.
     
  • Obama’s Asia Legacy
    Michael Green, Paul Haenle September 15, 2016

    As President Obama concludes his final months in office, what will be his legacy in the Asia-Pacific? In this podcast, Paul Haenle and Michael Green, former senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council under former president George W. Bush, assess the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia" and what policy approaches the next administration could adapt to address ongoing regional issues, such as maritime disputes in the South China Sea and the advancement of North Korea’s nuclear and missile weapons program.

    Green commented on Obama’s eleventh and final trip to Asia in September 2016, noting that while the President’s travel was intended to serve as a capstone to his rebalance policy to the region, many of the policy objectives achieved during the visit were overshadowed in the press coverage by unexpected incidents. Green gave the president high marks for his engagement with Southeast Asia but said that great power relations, such as with China, Japan and South Korea, were being passed on to the next U.S. administration on uneven footings. Finally, Green was pessimistic that the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, a key component of Obama’s Asia policy legacy, would be ratified by the U.S. Congress during Obama’s lame-duck session. He noted that this failure would be a blow to U.S. credibility in the Asia-Pacific region.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    Michael Green

    Michael Green is a senior vice president for Asia and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and chair in modern and contemporary Japanese politics and foreign policy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He previously served as the senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council under former president George W. Bush.

    As President Barack Obama enters his final months in office, experts are analyzing what his legacy in the Asia-Pacific will be and how impactful his "pivot to Asia" has been.
     
  • U.S.-China Relations Past and Present, Part II
    Dennis Wilder, Paul Haenle August 17, 2016

    As tensions between the United States and China rise over security issues in the Asia-Pacific region, there are concerns about the possibility of conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Dennis Wilder, former senior director for East Asia on the George W. Bush administration’s national security council, has witnessed many high and low points in the U.S.-China relationship over his distinguished four-decade career in the U.S. government. In this podcast with Paul Haenle, Wilder acknowledged the real and difficult challenges facing Beijing and Washington today, but expressed optimism that the two governments can manage their differences and continue to advance relations along a peaceful and constructive path.

    In part two of this two-part podcast, Wilder assessed the state of U.S.-China relations at the end of the Obama administration, comparing them with relations at the end of the Bush administration. He offered lessons that future administrations can glean from both President Bush and Obama’s relationships with foreign leaders. Looking forward, Dennis said that for the United States and China to strengthen their relations, the countries should continue to develop strong economic relations, cooperate on national security issues such as North Korea, and more broadly solve the problem of strategic mistrust.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    Dennis Wilder

    Dennis Wilder is a senior fellow with the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University. Most recently, Dennis served as the CIA’s deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific, and previous to that had roles as the senior editor of the president’s Daily Brief and National Security Council special assistant to the president and director for East Asian affairs.

    To strengthen their relationship, Beijing and Washington should prioritize developing strong economic relations and cooperate on national security issues, in addition to solving strategic mistrust.
     
  • U.S.-China Relations Past and Present, Part I
    Dennis Wilder, Paul Haenle August 4, 2016

    As tensions between the United States and China rise over security issues in the Asia-Pacific region, some are concerned about the possibility of conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Dennis Wilder, former senior director for East Asia on the George W. Bush administration’s national security council, has witnessed many high and low points in the U.S.-China relationship over his distinguished four-decade career in the U.S. government. In this podcast with Paul Haenle, Wilder acknowledged the real and difficult challenges facing Beijing and Washington today, but expressed optimism that the two governments can manage their differences and continue to advance relations along a peaceful and constructive path.

    Wilder discussed the highlights and lowlights of his China-focused public service career, including joining former President George W. Bush at the 2008 Olympics and dealing with the aftermath of the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999. Looking toward the future of the U.S.-China relationship, Wilder explained that his optimism derives in part from a recognition that American and Chinese leaders will have to find ways to work together to address common global challenges if both countries are to achieve their own national objectives. He also noted that the American and Chinese people have many similarities, such as their entrepreneurialism, that could make future cooperation more likely.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    Dennis Wilder

    Dennis Wilder is a senior fellow with the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University. Most recently, Dennis served as the CIA’s deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific, and previous to that had roles as the senior editor of the president’s Daily Brief and National Security Council special assistant to the president and director for East Asian affairs.

    Despite the multiple challenges facing Beijing and Washington today, the two governments can manage their differences and continue to advance relations along a peaceful and constructive path.
     
  • Interpreting the South China Sea Tribunal Ruling
    Elizabeth Economy, Paul Haenle July 19, 2016

    International responses to the tribunal’s ruling in the South China Sea have raised questions about the stability of the Asia-Pacific region and what roles the United States and China have in it. In this podcast, Paul Haenle and Elizabeth Economy discuss the roots of increased instability in East Asia, which includes tension surrounding the South China Sea and cross-strait relations, and how these issues fit into a broader evaluation of President Obama’s legacy in the region.

    Economy argues that despite Beijing’s vocal opposition to the tribunal’s ruling, China wishes to avoid conflict and should seek off-ramps to prevent escalation through joint projects with regional neighbors. Meanwhile, Economy says the United States should continue to strengthen its regional partners’ maritime capabilities while ensuring that disagreements over the ruling do not evolve into a bilateral standoff between the United States and China. On Taiwan, she discusses mainland China’s distrust of President Tsai and the dangers of undermining cross-strait relations. Economy believes the United States’ rebalance to Asia is a necessary response to China’s new assertive foreign policy. While the rebalance has been succesful in some areas, she says it has yet to be fully implemented, which can be seen through the ongoing TPP negotiations.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    Elizabeth Economy

    Elizabeth Economy is the C.V. Starr senior fellow and director for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is a member of the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council on the United States and served as a member and then vice chair of WEF's Global Agenda Council on the Future of China from 2008 to 2014.

    As President Obama’s term in office draws to a close, his legacy in the Asia-Pacific deserves reflection, particularly in light of tensions in the South China Sea and cross-strait relations.
     
  • Uncertainty in China-Europe Relations

    Economic relations between Europe and China remain highly salient due to the potential for increased trade and investment, as well as future cooperation on projects stemming from the Belt and Road initiative. Yet, in this podcast with Paul Haenle, Francois Godement argues that China-EU commercial relations are increasingly asymmetric and spontaneous, which presents opportunities and challenges to the overall relationship. 

    Godement is skeptical that the growing presence of Chinese state-owned enterprises in the EU is part of a planned Chinese government strategy.  As China’s economic slowdown causes Europe to lose confidence, Godement argues that the dynamism of China’s new economy reflects an underlying resilience, while managing emerging sectors will present a new challenge for Chinese policymakers.  Underlying all of this, Godement discusses how the Belt and Road initiative reflects the complexity of China’s relations with the United States, Central Asia, and Europe.

    François Godement

    François Godement is an expert on Chinese and East Asian strategic and international affairs and a nonresident senior associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His current research focuses on trends and debates in China’s foreign policy and on Europe-China relations.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    China-EU commercial relations are increasingly asymmetric and spontaneous, which presents opportunities and challenges to the overall relationship.
     
  • View from Moscow: China’s Westward March

    China and Russia are solidifying their bilateral relationship as the former looks westward and the latter turns to its east borders. In this podcast with Paul Haenle, Dmitri Trenin discusses the conditions that are leading to stronger China-Russian ties, including China’s growing influence in Eurasia and Russia’s shifting foreign policy orientation. 

    Trenin believes that China and Russia are forming an entente, a relationship that is more than a partnership but less than an alliance. He argues that China has become a larger factor in Russia’s foreign policy out of necessity, given Russian isolation after the Ukraine crisis. At the same time, Trenin insists that Russian leaders realize that China cannot take the place of Russia’s relations with the West, and he notes that they are seeking to avoid allowing China too much influence over Moscow despite Beijing's more favorable geopolitical positioning.

    Dmitri Trenin

    Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, has been with the center since its inception. He also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    China and Russia enjoy an increasingly close relationship that constitutes more than a partnership but falls short of a full alliance.
     
  • 2016 Elections in a Changing Asia-Pacific

    With Tsai Ing-wen taking office in Taipei next week and the U.S. presidential election approaching, new players will be taking the reins in the Asia-Pacific. In this podcast with Paul Haenle, Douglas Paal discusses the future of U.S.-China relations and the broader Asia-Pacific region in the wake of these leadership transitions in the United States and Taiwan.

    Paal said that Asia has not commanded the attention of U.S. voters so far, given the current turmoil in the Middle East and crises in Europe. In a shift from his advice following Obama’s re-election, Paal suggested that the new U.S. president should take time to put his or her administration in place before pursuing any wide-ranging discussions with mainland Chinese leaders. Cross-Strait ties are important for the region at large, yet Paal asserts that the tenor of these relations will depend primarily on China’s actions in the coming months.

    Douglas H. Paal

    Douglas H. Paal is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase International (2006-2008) and was an unofficial U.S. representative to Taiwan as director of the American Institute in Taiwan (2002-2006).

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy based at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Haenle’s research focuses on Chinese foreign policy and U.S.-China relations.

    New leadership in Taiwan and the United States has the potential to alter the dynamics of the U.S.-China relationship.
     
  • China’s Relations with a Strategic Europe
    Jan Techau, Paul Haenle April 21, 2016

    For many years, China-EU relations have been driven singularly by mercantilism, but diplomatic engagement between Beijing and Brussels increasingly features a geopolitical component. In this podcast with Paul Haenle, Carnegie-Europe Director Jan Techau discusses the challenges facing the European Union’s integration project as well as the changing nature of China-EU economic and political ties.

    Techau said that EU foreign policy is a big unkept promise of Europe’s integration project, because disparate interests and policies among EU member states has made it difficult for Europe to project a singular, cohesive foreign-policy agenda. According to Techau, this dynamic is relevant to Europe’s debate about whether to grant market economy status to China, an issue European countries disagree on. China’s new Belt and Road initiative demonstrates that while economics and the search for new markets still bring Brussels and Beijing together, China’s growing influence in Europe, compared to that of the United States, poses a challenge for Brussels and could pull China and the EU apart.

    Jan Techau

    Jan Techau is the director of Carnegie Europe, the European center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Techau works on EU integration and foreign policy, transatlantic affairs, and German foreign and security policy.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    Projecting a cohesive foreign policy is a key challenge facing the European Union, and its dealings with China are no exception.
     
  • U.S.-China Relations and the South China Sea
    J. Stapleton Roy, Paul Haenle March 27, 2016

    China’s efforts to secure its claims in the Paracel Islands have raised fresh questions about the direction of U.S.-China relations. To many, recurring tensions between the two countries reflect a growing sense of strategic rivalry that must be carefully managed. In this podcast, former U.S. ambassador to China J. Stapleton Roy and Paul Haenle discuss the situation in the South China Sea and the broader implications for U.S.-China relations.

    Ambassador Roy noted that China’s policy on the South China Sea has been ambiguous on key issues, while also pointing out that China treats specific island chains differently. He stated that U.S. policymakers and observers therefore must be analytically nuanced about how to prudently wield the tools of diplomacy to address the concerns of both countries. Ambassador Roy advised that the United States and China would do well to agree on a code of conduct for the region, and he maintained that these disputes can be effectively settled.

    J. Stapleton Roy

    J. Stapleton Roy is founding director emeritus of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. He previously served as the U.S. ambassador to Singapore, China, and Indonesia.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    Disputes between China and U.S. allies over the South China can be settled diplomatically, but this will require a nuanced understanding of all parties’ concerns.
     
  • China-EU Trade and Economic Relations
    Joerg Wuttke, Paul Haenle February 9, 2016

    China and the European Union enjoy increasingly strong economic and commercial ties, solidified by a landmark year in 2015. Xi Jinping met with top leaders from the UK, France, and Germany to expand economic cooperation. In this podcast with Paul Haenle, EU Chamber of Commerce President Joerg Wuttke discusses what he thinks the EU can expect in the coming years regarding its economic presence in China.

    Wuttke notes that the main story in EU-China relations in 2015 was not simply an increase in trade but rather a complete shift in investment flows, as China invested $22 billion in the European Union. He expects this level of Chinese investment into Europe to continue, but he reasons that European investment in China may slow due to lower growth rates and other constraints. Wuttke also comments on emerging international initiatives that China has put forward, such as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Belt and Road.

    Joerg Wuttke

    Joerg Wuttke is the president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce. He has been vice president and chief representative of BASF China since 1997.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    2015 has seen a sizable increase in China’s investment in the European Union, as well as increasingly strong commercial and economic ties.
     
  • Is China’s Belt and Road a Strategy?
    Paul Haenle, Xie Tao January 19, 2016

    In the past year, the Belt and Road initiative has been a highly popular topic for Chinese analysts and journalists, who have described China’s drive to finance infrastructure projects in neighboring countries as a national or grand strategy. In this podcast, host Paul Haenle and Xie Tao discuss the economic and geopolitical motivations behind this initiative and the nuanced ways that the Chinese government and analysts have described it.

    Xie Tao argues that Chinese leaders have defined these efforts as an initiative to frame it as a call for action for China to provide public goods to other countries. He notes that China’s policymaking process has lacked transparency, leaving some uncertainty about China’s intentions. Haenle points out that it is important for China’s diplomats to communicate closely with the rest of the international community about details surrounding the initiative. If China is not forthcoming and transparent about its efforts, Haenle argues, people will assume that their own assumptions about it are true. 

    Xie Tao

    Xie Tao is a professor of political science at Beijing Foreign Studies University. He holds a PhD in political science from Northwestern University and is the author of U.S.-China Relations: China Policy on Capitol Hill and co-author of Living with the Dragon: How the American Public Views the Rise of China.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    Chinese leaders have framed the Belt and Road initiative as a way for China to provide public goods to other countries, although a lack of transparency has led some to question China’s motives.
     
  • The 2016 Taiwan Elections and Cross-Strait Relations
    Shelley Rigger, Paul Haenle January 2, 2016

    The historic visit between Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou in November 2015 cemented the legacies of both leaders, but a projected Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) victory in Taiwan’s January 16, 2016 elections could introduce new challenges and strains into cross-Strait relations. In this podcast with Paul Haenle, recorded during her visit to Beijing as Carnegie-Tsinghua’s fifteenth Distinguished Speaker, Taiwan expert Shelley Rigger assesses the upcoming elections in Taiwan, the motivations behind the Xi-Ma meeting, changes in the DPP since 2000, and reasons for optimism about the future of cross-Strait ties.

    Rigger asserted that the Xi-Ma meeting was meant to highlight the legacy of cooperation built by the two sides over the past several years. She said that Xi’s openness to this meeting could provide an opportunity for officials and scholars to “think outside the box” on how to promote good ties in the future. In addition, Rigger explained that the DPP and its presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen want to “see cross-Strait relations sustained in a stable fashion.” Although there will certainly be challenges, these are all reasons that the international community can remain somewhat optimistic about cross-Strait relations in the coming years.​

    Click here for a full transcript

    Shelley Rigger 

    Shelley Rigger is the Brown Professor of East Asian Politics, chair of Chinese Studies, and assistant dean for educational policy at Davidson College​.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    The historic visit between Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou cemented the legacies of both leaders, but a DPP victory in Taiwan’s elections could introduce new challenges into cross-Strait relations.
     
  • China-India Nuclear Relations
    Chintamani Mahapatra, Tong Zhao December 22, 2015

    Nuclear balance is a pillar of security in the Indo-Pacific region. China has continued to improve its second-strike nuclear deterrent capabilities. Meanwhile, India has gained greater access to foreign nuclear materials and technology to build a more advanced nuclear weapons program. These parallel developments have added new complexities to security interactions between Beijing and New Delhi that deserve careful attention from policymakers and other observers alike.

    In this podcast, Tong Zhao and Chintamani Mahapatra examined how these new realities present both challenges and opportunities for policymakers as they manage the nuclear relationship between China and India. The two discussed whether China and India can cooperate on nuclear energy policy and how India’s ongoing efforts to modernize its nuclear arsenal has affected bilateral nuclear stability. They also assessed implications of India’s acceptance into the Nuclear Suppliers Group for regional nuclear order and Pakistan’s nuclear program.

    Chintamani Mahapatra

    Chintamani Mahapatra is the chairman of the Canada, U.S., and Latin American Studies Department at the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

    Tong Zhao

    Tong Zhao is an associate at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy who specializes in nuclear and strategic security issues.

    China’s efforts to strengthen its second-strike deterrence and India’s greater access to nuclear technology must be managed carefully to maintain a stable security environment.
     
  • The Paris Talks and China’s Approach to Climate Change
    Paul Haenle, Wang Tao November 4, 2015

    Following the recent U.S.-China state visit, climate change has been an area of growing bilateral cooperation. China announced several significant initiatives, including a nationwide cap-and-trade scheme for several industries. In this podcast with Paul Haenle, Carnegie-Tsinghua’s Wang Tao discusses how these developments will affect China’s energy future, U.S.-China relations, and global efforts to combat the negative effects of climate change.

    Wang observes that China has placed greater importance on energy and climate issues, prompting positive developments in Chinese policymaking. For example, Wang notes that China’s commitment to provide $3 billion to help other developing countries face climate change is a positive step toward overcoming past reluctance to take a leading role on the issue. Wang Tao asserts that China’s domestic reforms, cooperation with the United States, and other international contributions are sources of positive momentum for UN-sponsored climate change talks in Paris later this year, although numerous challenges remain to be addressed.

    Wang Tao

    Wang Tao is a resident scholar in the Energy and Climate Program based at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. His research focuses on China’s climate and energy policy, with particular attention to unconventional oil and natural gas, transportation, electric vehicles, and international climate negotiations.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    China’s national cap-and-trade program for carbon emissions and other recently announced initiatives are creating positive momentum ahead of the UN climate conference in Paris.
     
  • Xi Jinping’s State Visit to the United States
    Paul Haenle, Evan Medeiros September 20, 2015

    This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping embarks on his first state visit to the United States at a complicated moment in the bilateral relationship. In this podcast with Paul Haenle, former senior director for Asian affairs on the U.S. National Security Council Evan Medeiros explains why he has modest expectations for Xi’s visit and why he believes that the most important aspect of the summit will be the private, strategic discussions between the two leaders.

    Medeiros observes that frictions are not a new feature of the U.S.-China relationship, which has long been a mix of cooperation and competition. He says that the core challenge for U.S. policymakers is to balance these two elements by encouraging China to cooperate more while managing areas of competition so that they do not define the relationship. Medeiros notes that the relationship is highly resilient, due to the tireless efforts of U.S. and Chinese policymakers who have deepened communication channels while navigating difficult issues over the years. This strong track record provides what Medeiros believes is a solid foundation for a constructive relationship for the rest of the Obama administration.

    Evan Medeiros

    Evan Medeiros was special assistant to the president and senior director for Asian Affairs at the White House’s National Security Council staff of President Barack Obama from July 2013 to June 2015. Prior to that, he served as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs and was a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. 

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    The U.S.-China relationship has long been a mix of cooperation and competition. The core challenge for policymakers is to balance these two elements by encouraging the first and managing the second.
     
  • What is Going on with China’s Economy?
    Yukon Huang, Paul Haenle August 19, 2015

    The Shanghai composite stock index has lost more than a quarter of its value since early June, after more than doubled in the preceding year. Government intervention meant to prop up prices has so far failed to stabilize stocks or restore public confidence. In the second part of a three-part series, Paul Haenle and Carnegie’s Yukon Huang discuss the roles that the state and market forces play in China’s transitioning economy, particularly with regard to the country’s equity market.

    Yukon Huang explains that although market forces are indeed freeing up the prices of goods, interest rates, and capital flows in China, these reforms do not imply that the state will relinquish its ownership over key raw material supplies or strategically important state enterprises. Huang maintains that China’s leaders remain committed to deepening and strengthening the country’s capital market so as to achieve their goals of internationalizing the renminbi and strengthening Chinese influence on the international financial system. 

    Yukon Huang

    Yukon Huang is a senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program. His research focuses on China’s economic development and its impact on Asia and the global economy.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    China’s leaders remain committed to strengthening the country’s capital market so as to internationalize the renminbi and enhance Chinese influence on the international financial system.
     
  • What Caused the Chinese Stock Market Crash?
    Yukon Huang, Paul Haenle August 3, 2015

    The Shanghai composite stock index has lost more than a quarter of its value since early June, after more than doubled in the preceding year. Government intervention meant to prop up prices has so far failed to stabilize stocks or restore public confidence. In the first part of a three-part series, Paul Haenle and Carnegie’s Yukon Huang discuss the causes of the crash, its political and economic consequences, and how China’s stock market differs from those of other countries.

    Huang explained that the growth in China’s stock market over the past year was encouraged by government policies rather than underlying economic conditions. Regulators and leaders who might ordinarily have urged caution to manage risk instead directed more investment into the equity market so as to internationalize the renminbi and to help manage China’s debt problem. Huang explained that although these objectives are sensible, their implementation was not carefully considered. He argued that the stock market crash is unlikely to prompt wider economic contagion, because only seven percent of Chinese households own stock. Still, Huang argued that the confidence and credibility of the top Chinese leadership has been undermined.

    Yukon Huang

    Yukon Huang is a senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program. His research focuses on China’s economic development and its impact on Asia and the global economy.

    Paul Haenle

    Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served from June 2007 to June 2009 as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former president George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.

    While the recent stock market crash seems unlikely to prompt wider economic fallout, it has undermined the confidence and credibility of Chinese leaders.
     
  • How China’s Rise Affects Its Neighbors (Part 2)
    Tong Zhao, John Garver July 20, 2015

    China’s foreign policy has shifted in recent years from a low-profile approach to a more proactive one. This change is evident in China’s growing diplomatic, economic, and military influence. John Garver and Tong Zhao discuss China’s growing role in global affairs and how the United States and countries in the Asia-Pacific view this geopolitical shift.

    In the second half of this two-part podcast, Garver provides a historical overview of U.S. strategic objectives in the Pacific and highlights how they are shaping U.S.-China relations today. He also discusses the implications of Xi Jinping’s proposal of mutual respect for core interests for U.S.-China diplomatic engagement in the future.

    John Garver

    John Garver is a professor of international affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology’s Sam Nunn School of International Affairs. He specializes in and has written extensively on Asian international relations and China’s foreign relations.

    Tong Zhao

    Tong Zhao is an associate in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program based at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. His research focuses on strategic security issues, including nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, missile defense, strategic stability, and China’s security and foreign policy.

    Long-standing U.S. strategic objectives in the Pacific and Xi Jinping’s proposal of mutual respect for core interests shape current U.S.-China relations.
     
  • How China’s Rise Affects Its Neighbors (Part 1)
    Tong Zhao, John Garver July 6, 2015

    China’s foreign policy has shifted in recent years from a low-profile approach to a more proactive one. This change is evident in China’s growing diplomatic, economic, and military influence. John Garver and Tong Zhao discuss China’s growing role in global affairs and how the United States and countries in the Asia-Pacific perceive this geopolitical shift.

    In the first half of this two-part podcast, Garver focuses on China’s relations with neighboring countries, especially on how China can manage its complicated territorial disputes with Japan and the Philippines. Garver also offers his thoughts on whether China’s key neighbors and the United States will accept China’s growing power or jointly attempt to hedge against its rise.

    John Garver

    John Garver is a professor of international affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology’s Sam Nunn School of International Affairs. He specializes in and has written extensively on Asian international relations and China’s foreign relations.

    Tong Zhao

    Tong Zhao is an associate in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program based at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. His research focuses on strategic security issues, including nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, missile defense, strategic stability, and China’s security and foreign policy.

    China’s growing economic, political, and military power is redefining the country’s international role and changing its relationships with neighboring Asian countries and the United States.
     

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